Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-11-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.88   1.03   23300 14717 8577 6
Day 1 forecast -0.88   1.03   23300 14634 8660 6
Day 4 forecast -0.89   1.03   23300 14823 8471 6
Day 7 forecast -0.87   1.02   23300 14350 8946 4
Day 10 forecast -0.9   1.05   23300 15060 8233 7

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.045 0.298 0.254 0.041 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.03 0.103 0.123 0.029 0.001
c3 0 0 0.007 0.027 0.022 0.006 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.045 0.297 0.254 0.04 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.03 0.096 0.119 0.028 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.036 0.027 0.007 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.002 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.045 0.295 0.249 0.04 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.031 0.1 0.119 0.028 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.037 0.028 0.007 0.002
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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