Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-10-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.62	0.78	15103	6524	8429	150
Day 1 forecast	-0.62	0.77	15103	6370	8597	136
Day 4 forecast	-0.62	0.78	15103	6435	8527	141
Day 7 forecast	-0.61	0.77	15103	6287	8686	130
Day 10 forecast	-0.62	0.78	15103	6395	8572	136

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.055	0.39	0.154	0.008	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.007	0.091	0.144	0.068	0.01	0
	c3	0	0.001	0.035	0.023	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c4	0	0.001	0.005	0.002	0.001	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.053	0.389	0.157	0.01	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.008	0.078	0.139	0.066	0.01	0
	c3	0	0.002	0.048	0.025	0.001	0.002	0.001
	c4	0	0.001	0.004	0.002	0.001	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.053	0.388	0.155	0.01	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.008	0.081	0.141	0.066	0.01	0
	c3	0	0.002	0.047	0.025	0.002	0.002	0.001
	c4	0	0.001	0.003	0.002	0	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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