Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.13	1.26	33417	16460	16909	48
Day 1 forecast	-1.13	1.26	33417	16497	16873	47
Day 4 forecast	-1.13	1.26	33417	16479	16892	46
Day 7 forecast	-1.14	1.27	33417	16487	16882	48
Day 10 forecast	-1.14	1.27	33417	16584	16786	47

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.036	0.096	0.054	0.018	0.017
	c2	0	0.001	0.005	0.048	0.126	0.088	0.027
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.016	0.072	0.142	0.084
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.04	0.07
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.036	0.095	0.053	0.018	0.017
	c2	0	0.001	0.005	0.048	0.128	0.089	0.027
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.071	0.142	0.085
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.041	0.07
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.036	0.095	0.053	0.017	0.017
	c2	0	0.001	0.005	0.048	0.127	0.087	0.026
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.071	0.144	0.085
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.04	0.07
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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