Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.15	1.28	43440	21738	21656	46
Day 1 forecast	-1.15	1.28	43440	21742	21650	48
Day 4 forecast	-1.15	1.28	43440	21719	21675	46
Day 7 forecast	-1.15	1.28	43440	21714	21678	48
Day 10 forecast	-1.16	1.29	43440	22091	21306	43

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.002	0.044	0.119	0.051	0.019	0.019
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.045	0.134	0.096	0.025
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.071	0.141	0.065
	c4	0	0	0	0	0.007	0.035	0.061
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.034
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.002	0.044	0.118	0.05	0.019	0.019
	c2	0	0.001	0.004	0.045	0.136	0.097	0.025
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.069	0.14	0.065
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.035	0.062
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0.002
	c1	0	0.002	0.044	0.117	0.05	0.018	0.018
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.046	0.135	0.096	0.024
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.07	0.141	0.065
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.035	0.062
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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