Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.15	1.27	45458	24019	21391	48
Day 1 forecast	-1.15	1.27	45458	24009	21403	46
Day 4 forecast	-1.15	1.28	45458	24054	21355	49
Day 7 forecast	-1.14	1.27	45458	23870	21539	49
Day 10 forecast	-1.14	1.28	45458	24015	21391	52

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.047	0.132	0.055	0.018	0.016
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.042	0.131	0.098	0.023
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.02	0.078	0.14	0.047
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.025	0.067
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.034
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.047	0.132	0.054	0.018	0.016
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.041	0.132	0.099	0.024
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.02	0.076	0.138	0.047
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.025	0.067
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.047	0.13	0.054	0.018	0.015
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.042	0.133	0.099	0.024
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.02	0.076	0.139	0.047
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.025	0.067
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.034
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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