Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.12   1.26   47110 24477 22593 40
Day 1 forecast -1.12   1.26   47110 24465 22603 42
Day 4 forecast -1.12   1.26   47110 24555 22510 45
Day 7 forecast -1.11   1.26   47110 24308 22759 43
Day 10 forecast -1.11   1.25   47110 24171 22890 49

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.045 0.143 0.064 0.018 0.017
c2 0 0 0.005 0.061 0.137 0.076 0.02
c3 0 0 0.002 0.035 0.086 0.114 0.036
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.017 0.07
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.033
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.045 0.143 0.063 0.018 0.016
c2 0 0 0.005 0.061 0.14 0.077 0.02
c3 0 0 0.002 0.035 0.084 0.114 0.036
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.017 0.069
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.033
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.044 0.142 0.063 0.018 0.016
c2 0 0 0.005 0.061 0.139 0.076 0.019
c3 0 0 0.002 0.035 0.085 0.114 0.036
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.017 0.07
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.033
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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