Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.03   1.19   48010 22975 24986 49
Day 1 forecast -1.02   1.18   48010 22767 25190 53
Day 4 forecast -1.03   1.18   48010 22829 25124 57
Day 7 forecast -1.02   1.18   48010 22448 25509 53
Day 10 forecast -1.01   1.17   48010 22086 25866 58

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.049 0.145 0.067 0.017 0.014
c2 0 0 0.006 0.09 0.149 0.049 0.014
c3 0 0 0.004 0.05 0.109 0.081 0.023
c4 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.007 0.019 0.062
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.029
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.049 0.144 0.066 0.016 0.013
c2 0 0 0.006 0.091 0.15 0.049 0.014
c3 0 0 0.004 0.049 0.108 0.082 0.023
c4 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.007 0.019 0.062
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.029
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.048 0.143 0.066 0.016 0.013
c2 0 0 0.006 0.09 0.148 0.048 0.014
c3 0 0 0.004 0.05 0.11 0.082 0.023
c4 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.02 0.061
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.029
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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