Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2019-03-28
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.96 | 1.12 | 49416 | 20917 | 28429 | 70 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.95 | 1.1 | 49416 | 20574 | 28773 | 69 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.95 | 1.1 | 49416 | 20558 | 28795 | 63 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.94 | 1.09 | 49416 | 20210 | 29121 | 85 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.95 | 1.1 | 49416 | 20199 | 29154 | 63 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.051 | 0.131 | 0.061 | 0.02 | 0.01 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.012 | 0.162 | 0.175 | 0.04 | 0.009 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.042 | 0.088 | 0.055 | 0.027 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.019 | 0.055 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.025 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.059 | 0.019 | 0.009 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.012 | 0.16 | 0.176 | 0.041 | 0.01 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.044 | 0.088 | 0.054 | 0.026 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.02 | 0.057 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.025 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.05 | 0.128 | 0.059 | 0.019 | 0.009 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.155 | 0.171 | 0.04 | 0.01 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.052 | 0.093 | 0.055 | 0.025 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.02 | 0.056 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.026 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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