Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.95   1.1   49105 21955 27081 69
Day 1 forecast -0.94   1.09   49105 21633 27398 74
Day 4 forecast -0.94   1.09   49105 21800 27230 75
Day 7 forecast -0.93   1.08   49105 21033 27995 77
Day 10 forecast -0.94   1.08   49105 21566 27454 85

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.004 0.06 0.145 0.056 0.018 0.009
c2 0 0.001 0.021 0.22 0.172 0.034 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.031 0.035 0.061 0.027
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.012 0.059
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.016
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.004 0.06 0.144 0.054 0.018 0.008
c2 0 0.001 0.021 0.221 0.174 0.035 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.031 0.035 0.06 0.026
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.013 0.06
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.004 0.059 0.142 0.053 0.018 0.008
c2 0 0.001 0.022 0.221 0.172 0.034 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.032 0.038 0.06 0.026
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.014 0.06
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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