Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.95	1.1	49105	21955	27081	69
Day 1 forecast	-0.94	1.09	49105	21633	27398	74
Day 4 forecast	-0.94	1.09	49105	21800	27230	75
Day 7 forecast	-0.93	1.08	49105	21033	27995	77
Day 10 forecast	-0.94	1.08	49105	21566	27454	85

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.06	0.145	0.056	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.021	0.22	0.172	0.034	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.031	0.035	0.061	0.027
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.012	0.059
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.016
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.004	0.06	0.144	0.054	0.018	0.008
	c2	0	0.001	0.021	0.221	0.174	0.035	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.031	0.035	0.06	0.026
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.013	0.06
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.004	0.059	0.142	0.053	0.018	0.008
	c2	0	0.001	0.022	0.221	0.172	0.034	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.032	0.038	0.06	0.026
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.014	0.06
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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