Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.9	1.05	47972	19322	28602	48
Day 1 forecast	-0.89	1.04	47972	19011	28903	58
Day 4 forecast	-0.9	1.04	47972	19118	28799	55
Day 7 forecast	-0.88	1.03	47972	18529	29377	66
Day 10 forecast	-0.89	1.04	47972	18891	29029	52

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.065	0.143	0.049	0.014	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.029	0.239	0.163	0.035	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.031	0.028	0.066	0.024
	c4	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.052
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.016
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.006	0.065	0.142	0.047	0.014	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.029	0.239	0.163	0.035	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.032	0.029	0.066	0.022
	c4	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.016	0.054
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.016
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.006	0.064	0.141	0.046	0.013	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.028	0.239	0.163	0.033	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.007	0.032	0.029	0.066	0.019
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.017	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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