Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-02-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.86   1.03   43401 17413 25942 46
Day 1 forecast -0.85   1.03   43401 17233 26118 50
Day 4 forecast -0.86   1.03   43401 17428 25920 53
Day 7 forecast -0.84   1.01   43401 16716 26624 61
Day 10 forecast -0.86   1.03   43401 17488 25872 41

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.114 0.155 0.045 0.016 0.007
c2 0 0.003 0.128 0.212 0.087 0.038 0.002
c3 0 0 0.002 0.009 0.034 0.057 0.039
c4 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.034
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.114 0.156 0.045 0.016 0.007
c2 0 0.003 0.127 0.211 0.086 0.038 0.002
c3 0 0 0.003 0.009 0.035 0.057 0.039
c4 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.032
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.111 0.151 0.043 0.016 0.007
c2 0 0.003 0.129 0.215 0.086 0.037 0.002
c3 0 0 0.004 0.01 0.036 0.058 0.037
c4 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.034
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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