Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2019-01-31
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.83 | 0.98 | 41987 | 16710 | 25222 | 55 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.83 | 0.98 | 41987 | 16638 | 25292 | 57 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.84 | 0.99 | 41987 | 16909 | 25019 | 59 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.81 | 0.96 | 41987 | 16010 | 25919 | 58 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.84 | 0.98 | 41987 | 16835 | 25101 | 51 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.166 | 0.16 | 0.043 | 0.015 | 0.005 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 0.166 | 0.087 | 0.029 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.009 | 0.041 | 0.049 | 0.039 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.031 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.166 | 0.159 | 0.042 | 0.015 | 0.005 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.133 | 0.166 | 0.086 | 0.028 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.009 | 0.043 | 0.049 | 0.039 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.03 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.159 | 0.154 | 0.041 | 0.014 | 0.005 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.14 | 0.171 | 0.086 | 0.026 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 0.044 | 0.051 | 0.037 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.032 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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