Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.88   1.04   40571 18120 22391 60
Day 1 forecast -0.87   1.03   40571 18043 22468 60
Day 4 forecast -0.88   1.04   40571 18323 22191 57
Day 7 forecast -0.85   1.01   40571 17375 23129 67
Day 10 forecast -0.88   1.03   40571 18165 22343 63

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.21 0.164 0.046 0.017 0.007
c2 0 0.005 0.122 0.121 0.087 0.041 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.004 0.034 0.047 0.048
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.022
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.21 0.165 0.047 0.017 0.007
c2 0 0.005 0.122 0.119 0.085 0.04 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.005 0.035 0.048 0.048
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.022
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.196 0.154 0.045 0.016 0.007
c2 0 0.006 0.137 0.13 0.085 0.038 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.005 0.037 0.051 0.045
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.024
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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