Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.93   1.07   39901 19936 19921 44
Day 1 forecast -0.92   1.07   39901 19773 20080 48
Day 4 forecast -0.93   1.07   39901 20019 19838 44
Day 7 forecast -0.9   1.05   39901 19116 20722 63
Day 10 forecast -0.93   1.07   39901 19902 19956 43

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.017 0.271 0.2 0.055 0.021 0.006
c2 0 0.004 0.066 0.068 0.086 0.057 0.005
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.024 0.043 0.055
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.012
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.017 0.272 0.2 0.055 0.021 0.006
c2 0 0.004 0.066 0.068 0.084 0.056 0.005
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.025 0.043 0.055
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.015 0.252 0.19 0.053 0.02 0.006
c2 0 0.005 0.086 0.077 0.084 0.055 0.004
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.027 0.046 0.055
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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