Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.99   1.13   37630 21444 16121 65
Day 1 forecast -0.99   1.13   37630 21405 16158 67
Day 4 forecast -1   1.14   37630 21690 15876 64
Day 7 forecast -0.97   1.11   37630 20836 16730 64
Day 10 forecast -1   1.14   37630 21752 15817 61

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.036 0.318 0.198 0.075 0.02 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.016 0.039 0.102 0.076 0.016
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.011 0.022 0.05
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.036 0.317 0.197 0.077 0.019 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.016 0.04 0.098 0.076 0.016
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.014 0.023 0.049
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.036 0.314 0.195 0.072 0.017 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.02 0.042 0.1 0.075 0.014
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.017 0.025 0.05
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Jan 18 03:54:02 UTC 2019 on arcmfcval

 
See Met Privacy