Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-12-13
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -1.16 | 1.28 | 34582 | 24852 | 9708 | 22 |
| Day 1 forecast | -1.15 | 1.27 | 34582 | 24751 | 9811 | 20 |
| Day 4 forecast | -1.15 | 1.28 | 34582 | 24970 | 9595 | 17 |
| Day 7 forecast | -1.13 | 1.26 | 34582 | 24117 | 10442 | 23 |
| Day 10 forecast | -1.15 | 1.28 | 34582 | 24975 | 9596 | 11 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.186 | 0.123 | 0.039 | 0.007 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.02 | 0.076 | 0.068 | 0.048 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.04 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.005 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.309 | 0.185 | 0.119 | 0.035 | 0.007 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.072 | 0.046 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.042 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.005 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.309 | 0.185 | 0.115 | 0.032 | 0.007 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.021 | 0.084 | 0.075 | 0.045 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.042 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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