Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.18   1.31   32519 25047 7462 10
Day 1 forecast -1.18   1.3   32519 24938 7571 10
Day 4 forecast -1.18   1.31   32519 25206 7303 10
Day 7 forecast -1.16   1.28   32519 24327 8181 11
Day 10 forecast -1.18   1.3   32519 25197 7314 8

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.06 0.29 0.207 0.129 0.046 0.01
c2 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.068 0.06 0.048
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.008 0.035
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.06 0.29 0.206 0.123 0.042 0.01
c2 0 0 0.001 0.017 0.073 0.063 0.047
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.009 0.037
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.06 0.29 0.204 0.118 0.04 0.01
c2 0 0 0.001 0.019 0.078 0.066 0.044
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.007 0.009 0.04
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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