Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-11-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.3   1.4   28354 26222 2128 4
Day 1 forecast -1.29   1.39   28354 26140 2210 4
Day 4 forecast -1.3   1.4   28354 26288 2062 4
Day 7 forecast -1.28   1.38   28354 25879 2471 4
Day 10 forecast -1.29   1.39   28354 26208 2144 2

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.249 0.21 0.178 0.076 0.01
c2 0 0 0 0.004 0.04 0.051 0.057
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.005 0.013 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.249 0.209 0.174 0.076 0.01
c2 0 0 0 0.005 0.043 0.051 0.054
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.005 0.014 0.022
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.249 0.209 0.172 0.071 0.008
c2 0 0 0 0.005 0.046 0.055 0.056
c3 0 0 0 0.003 0.005 0.014 0.023
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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