Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.04   1.12   20606 15655 4937 14
Day 1 forecast -1.02   1.11   20606 15396 5196 14
Day 4 forecast -1.03   1.11   20606 15404 5188 14
Day 7 forecast -1.02   1.1   20606 15351 5241 14
Day 10 forecast -1.03   1.12   20606 15480 5112 14

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.068 0.253 0.258 0.168 0.018 0.002
c2 0 0 0.006 0.048 0.081 0.041 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.012 0.008 0.008
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0.003 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.067 0.25 0.255 0.166 0.018 0.002
c2 0 0 0.007 0.051 0.082 0.04 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.013 0.008 0.008
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0.003 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.067 0.249 0.254 0.162 0.017 0.002
c2 0 0 0.008 0.051 0.085 0.041 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.013 0.009 0.008
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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