Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-10-04
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.92 | 1.03 | 11710 | 6943 | 4737 | 30 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.92 | 1.03 | 11710 | 6911 | 4768 | 31 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.92 | 1.03 | 11710 | 6885 | 4798 | 27 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.93 | 1.03 | 11710 | 6940 | 4739 | 31 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.92 | 1.03 | 11710 | 6880 | 4804 | 26 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.035 | 0.279 | 0.294 | 0.155 | 0.013 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.019 | 0.062 | 0.079 | 0.022 | 0.003 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.035 | 0.278 | 0.294 | 0.156 | 0.013 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.019 | 0.063 | 0.079 | 0.021 | 0.003 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.035 | 0.28 | 0.295 | 0.155 | 0.013 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.018 | 0.061 | 0.079 | 0.022 | 0.003 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh to. 25. okt. 09:22:49 +0000 2018 on arcmfcval