Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.06   1.2   12149 5604 6518 27
Day 1 forecast -1.06   1.2   12149 5599 6524 26
Day 4 forecast -1.06   1.2   12149 5593 6530 26
Day 7 forecast -1.06   1.2   12149 5610 6513 26
Day 10 forecast -1.06   1.2   12149 5577 6546 26

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.022 0.058 0.041 0.024 0.011
c2 0 0 0.003 0.037 0.127 0.114 0.049
c3 0 0 0.001 0.042 0.144 0.129 0.082
c4 0 0.001 0 0.003 0.018 0.02 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.021 0.057 0.041 0.023 0.011
c2 0 0 0.003 0.037 0.125 0.115 0.049
c3 0 0 0.001 0.043 0.147 0.13 0.083
c4 0 0.001 0 0.002 0.017 0.02 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.021 0.058 0.04 0.022 0.011
c2 0 0 0.004 0.035 0.126 0.116 0.049
c3 0 0 0.001 0.043 0.146 0.129 0.083
c4 0 0.001 0 0.002 0.017 0.02 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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