Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.06   1.21   28184 12073 16069 42
Day 1 forecast -1.06   1.21   28184 12056 16087 41
Day 4 forecast -1.06   1.21   28184 12076 16068 40
Day 7 forecast -1.06   1.21   28184 12037 16102 45
Day 10 forecast -1.06   1.21   28184 12104 16043 37

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.029 0.096 0.06 0.028 0.011
c2 0 0 0.004 0.049 0.126 0.09 0.035
c3 0 0 0.001 0.031 0.143 0.112 0.069
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.017 0.025 0.052
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.029 0.095 0.059 0.027 0.011
c2 0 0 0.004 0.048 0.127 0.09 0.036
c3 0 0 0.001 0.032 0.145 0.114 0.07
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.015 0.025 0.051
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.029 0.095 0.059 0.027 0.011
c2 0 0 0.004 0.048 0.127 0.089 0.036
c3 0 0 0.001 0.031 0.145 0.114 0.07
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.016 0.025 0.051
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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