Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.05   1.2   41468 16879 24552 37
Day 1 forecast -1.05   1.2   41468 16852 24583 33
Day 4 forecast -1.05   1.2   41468 16875 24558 35
Day 7 forecast -1.05   1.2   41468 16813 24619 36
Day 10 forecast -1.06   1.2   41468 16939 24497 32

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.038 0.137 0.069 0.024 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.058 0.119 0.071 0.027
c3 0 0 0.002 0.04 0.129 0.091 0.062
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.015 0.025 0.057
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.038 0.137 0.069 0.024 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.058 0.118 0.071 0.027
c3 0 0 0.002 0.04 0.131 0.093 0.063
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.013 0.023 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.038 0.136 0.068 0.024 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.058 0.119 0.07 0.027
c3 0 0 0.002 0.04 0.132 0.094 0.064
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.014 0.023 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.007
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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