Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.05	1.2	41468	16879	24552	37
Day 1 forecast	-1.05	1.2	41468	16852	24583	33
Day 4 forecast	-1.05	1.2	41468	16875	24558	35
Day 7 forecast	-1.05	1.2	41468	16813	24619	36
Day 10 forecast	-1.06	1.2	41468	16939	24497	32

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.038	0.137	0.069	0.024	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.058	0.119	0.071	0.027
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.04	0.129	0.091	0.062
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.025	0.057
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.038	0.137	0.069	0.024	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.058	0.118	0.071	0.027
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.04	0.131	0.093	0.063
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.023	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.002	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.038	0.136	0.068	0.024	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.058	0.119	0.07	0.027
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.04	0.132	0.094	0.064
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.014	0.023	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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