Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.02	1.2	44725	18304	26382	39
Day 1 forecast	-1.02	1.2	44725	18264	26426	35
Day 4 forecast	-1.03	1.2	44725	18333	26356	36
Day 7 forecast	-1.02	1.2	44725	18154	26535	36
Day 10 forecast	-1.03	1.2	44725	18320	26372	33

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.051	0.156	0.071	0.019	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.07	0.122	0.062	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.062	0.109	0.08	0.055
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.012	0.028	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.05	0.155	0.07	0.019	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.07	0.122	0.061	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.063	0.11	0.082	0.056
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.027	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.002	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.05	0.154	0.07	0.019	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.07	0.12	0.061	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.063	0.112	0.082	0.055
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.027	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.001	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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