Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.97	1.14	44985	17777	27163	45
Day 1 forecast	-0.97	1.15	44985	17806	27139	40
Day 4 forecast	-0.97	1.15	44985	17947	26998	40
Day 7 forecast	-0.96	1.14	44985	17557	27386	42
Day 10 forecast	-0.96	1.13	44985	17372	27573	40

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.158	0.068	0.016	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.077	0.132	0.05	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.071	0.113	0.074	0.043
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.014	0.03	0.05
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.158	0.068	0.016	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.078	0.132	0.049	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.071	0.115	0.076	0.044
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.028	0.049
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.003	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.156	0.067	0.016	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.079	0.132	0.048	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.071	0.116	0.077	0.043
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.028	0.05
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.003	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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