Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.92	1.05	44350	16669	27653	28
Day 1 forecast	-0.92	1.04	44350	16379	27944	27
Day 4 forecast	-0.92	1.04	44350	16427	27896	27
Day 7 forecast	-0.91	1.03	44350	15995	28325	30
Day 10 forecast	-0.9	1.02	44350	15748	28570	32

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.053	0.173	0.066	0.015	0.004
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.08	0.139	0.045	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.074	0.123	0.069	0.038
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.035	0.038
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.052	0.171	0.064	0.014	0.004
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.082	0.14	0.044	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.074	0.125	0.07	0.038
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.034	0.037
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.052	0.168	0.062	0.014	0.004
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.084	0.14	0.044	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.074	0.126	0.071	0.037
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.035	0.039
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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