Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.93	1.08	42993	17382	25573	38
Day 1 forecast	-0.92	1.07	42993	16972	25983	38
Day 4 forecast	-0.92	1.07	42993	16959	25996	38
Day 7 forecast	-0.91	1.06	42993	16619	26331	43
Day 10 forecast	-0.92	1.06	42993	16717	26243	33

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.055	0.167	0.073	0.018	0.008
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.082	0.135	0.047	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.075	0.114	0.069	0.037
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.013	0.037	0.034
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.055	0.164	0.071	0.017	0.008
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.084	0.136	0.048	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.077	0.117	0.07	0.038
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.036	0.034
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.054	0.162	0.068	0.016	0.007
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.084	0.137	0.048	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.078	0.117	0.07	0.037
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.037	0.034
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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