Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.95   1.1   47242 20059 27157 26
Day 1 forecast -0.95   1.1   47242 19823 27395 24
Day 4 forecast -0.95   1.1   47242 19948 27269 25
Day 7 forecast -0.93   1.09   47242 19370 27847 25
Day 10 forecast -0.94   1.09   47242 19396 27818 28

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.068 0.178 0.072 0.021 0.012
c2 0 0 0.006 0.107 0.133 0.045 0.005
c3 0 0 0.002 0.058 0.101 0.07 0.035
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.013 0.032 0.024
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.068 0.176 0.071 0.02 0.012
c2 0 0 0.006 0.111 0.134 0.046 0.005
c3 0 0 0.002 0.056 0.102 0.07 0.036
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.012 0.031 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.068 0.173 0.069 0.019 0.012
c2 0 0 0.007 0.111 0.132 0.046 0.005
c3 0 0 0.002 0.058 0.106 0.071 0.036
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.012 0.032 0.024
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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