Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-03-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.94   1.1   47492 19985 27480 27
Day 1 forecast -0.93   1.09   47492 19703 27760 29
Day 4 forecast -0.94   1.1   47492 19849 27614 29
Day 7 forecast -0.92   1.08   47492 19276 28188 28
Day 10 forecast -0.93   1.09   47492 19563 27898 31

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.059 0.175 0.086 0.029 0.011
c2 0 0 0.014 0.133 0.123 0.038 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.059 0.09 0.059 0.032
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.01 0.032 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.058 0.172 0.084 0.028 0.011
c2 0 0 0.015 0.138 0.127 0.039 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.057 0.088 0.059 0.032
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.031 0.022
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.058 0.168 0.082 0.027 0.01
c2 0 0 0.015 0.138 0.122 0.039 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.06 0.096 0.061 0.032
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.031 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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