Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.9	1.08	43110	18272	24787	51
Day 1 forecast	-0.9	1.08	43110	18037	25023	50
Day 4 forecast	-0.9	1.08	43110	18178	24882	50
Day 7 forecast	-0.89	1.07	43110	17714	25346	50
Day 10 forecast	-0.9	1.08	43110	17943	25125	42

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.108	0.168	0.053	0.023	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.052	0.223	0.101	0.037	0.012
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.025	0.021	0.032	0.045
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.018	0.026
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.108	0.167	0.052	0.023	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.052	0.224	0.102	0.036	0.011
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.023	0.022	0.033	0.047
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.018	0.024
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.107	0.166	0.053	0.023	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.053	0.223	0.099	0.034	0.012
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.026	0.022	0.034	0.047
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.018	0.025
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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