Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.93	1.09	42887	19281	23585	21
Day 1 forecast	-0.93	1.08	42887	19204	23662	21
Day 4 forecast	-0.93	1.09	42887	19320	23546	21
Day 7 forecast	-0.92	1.07	42887	18845	24015	27
Day 10 forecast	-0.93	1.09	42887	18911	23953	23

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.127	0.181	0.053	0.024	0.012
	c2	0	0.001	0.059	0.199	0.092	0.04	0.011
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.023	0.036	0.045
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.015	0.026
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.126	0.179	0.053	0.024	0.011
	c2	0	0.001	0.06	0.203	0.093	0.042	0.013
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.018	0.024	0.035	0.044
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.014	0.025
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.124	0.174	0.053	0.024	0.011
	c2	0	0.001	0.062	0.207	0.093	0.039	0.01
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.024	0.037	0.044
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.016	0.028
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Mar 2 03:54:03 UTC 2018 on arcmfcval