Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-02-08
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.93 | 1.08 | 40915 | 19285 | 21590 | 40 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.93 | 1.07 | 40915 | 19228 | 21644 | 43 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.93 | 1.08 | 40915 | 19285 | 21588 | 42 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.91 | 1.06 | 40915 | 18791 | 22079 | 45 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.92 | 1.07 | 40915 | 18965 | 21909 | 41 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.137 | 0.194 | 0.056 | 0.022 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.061 | 0.178 | 0.095 | 0.044 | 0.011 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.018 | 0.022 | 0.046 | 0.033 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.024 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.006 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.136 | 0.193 | 0.055 | 0.022 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.063 | 0.18 | 0.097 | 0.046 | 0.012 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.045 | 0.032 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.012 | 0.024 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.006 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.133 | 0.19 | 0.054 | 0.021 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.066 | 0.184 | 0.097 | 0.043 | 0.01 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.047 | 0.031 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.025 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.007 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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