Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.89	1.04	41039	18687	22311	41
Day 1 forecast	-0.89	1.04	41039	18536	22456	47
Day 4 forecast	-0.89	1.04	41039	18622	22371	46
Day 7 forecast	-0.87	1.02	41039	17991	22994	54
Day 10 forecast	-0.89	1.03	41039	18356	22637	46

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.165	0.194	0.057	0.026	0.008
	c2	0	0.002	0.07	0.167	0.074	0.048	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.018	0.023	0.052	0.022
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.014	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.165	0.192	0.057	0.025	0.008
	c2	0	0.002	0.07	0.17	0.075	0.05	0.008
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.017	0.022	0.051	0.022
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.014	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.011	0.16	0.187	0.055	0.025	0.008
	c2	0	0.002	0.074	0.175	0.077	0.049	0.008
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.018	0.022	0.052	0.021
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.014	0.018
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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