Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-01-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.93   1.07   40224 20083 20118 23
Day 1 forecast -0.92   1.07   40224 19838 20358 28
Day 4 forecast -0.93   1.08   40224 20178 20020 26
Day 7 forecast -0.91   1.06   40224 19456 20742 26
Day 10 forecast -0.93   1.08   40224 20099 20093 32

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.014 0.233 0.18 0.069 0.028 0.01
c2 0 0.001 0.058 0.129 0.069 0.049 0.004
c3 0 0 0.003 0.014 0.024 0.048 0.03
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.01 0.012
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.014 0.229 0.176 0.068 0.028 0.01
c2 0 0.002 0.062 0.134 0.072 0.05 0.004
c3 0 0 0.002 0.013 0.024 0.048 0.031
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.009 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.014 0.225 0.171 0.068 0.028 0.009
c2 0 0.002 0.065 0.138 0.071 0.05 0.004
c3 0 0 0.003 0.015 0.024 0.047 0.03
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.01 0.012
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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