Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-01-04
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.92 | 1.05 | 37747 | 19442 | 18280 | 25 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.92 | 1.05 | 37747 | 19412 | 18311 | 24 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.93 | 1.05 | 37747 | 19645 | 18081 | 21 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.9 | 1.03 | 37747 | 18808 | 18914 | 25 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.92 | 1.05 | 37747 | 19520 | 18206 | 21 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.276 | 0.213 | 0.091 | 0.013 | 0.006 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.032 | 0.079 | 0.071 | 0.047 | 0.001 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.014 | 0.04 | 0.053 | 0.01 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.277 | 0.218 | 0.091 | 0.013 | 0.005 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.031 | 0.075 | 0.073 | 0.048 | 0.001 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.014 | 0.039 | 0.052 | 0.01 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.272 | 0.208 | 0.088 | 0.013 | 0.006 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.035 | 0.084 | 0.075 | 0.048 | 0.001 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.014 | 0.039 | 0.052 | 0.01 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.006 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Jan 19 03:54:07 UTC 2018 on arcmfcval