Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-12-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.97   1.07   33132 20417 12683 32
Day 1 forecast -0.97   1.07   33132 20432 12671 29
Day 4 forecast -0.97   1.07   33132 20632 12471 29
Day 7 forecast -0.95   1.06   33132 19855 13241 36
Day 10 forecast -0.97   1.07   33132 20458 12639 35

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.044 0.285 0.266 0.109 0.012 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.012 0.038 0.079 0.019 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.041 0.042 0.014
c4 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.007 0.004 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.044 0.285 0.266 0.111 0.013 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.012 0.04 0.078 0.02 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.04 0.041 0.015
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.004 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.044 0.283 0.265 0.108 0.012 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.013 0.04 0.082 0.02 0.005
c3 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.04 0.042 0.015
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.003 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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