Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-11-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.01   1.1   30071 20919 9115 37
Day 1 forecast -1.01   1.1   30071 20921 9111 39
Day 4 forecast -1.02   1.11   30071 21139 8893 39
Day 7 forecast -1   1.09   30071 20365 9666 40
Day 10 forecast -1.02   1.11   30071 21169 8865 37

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.057 0.248 0.298 0.107 0.012 0.004
c2 0 0 0.01 0.045 0.06 0.029 0.001
c3 0 0 0 0.006 0.025 0.051 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.008 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.057 0.249 0.298 0.108 0.012 0.004
c2 0 0 0.009 0.046 0.059 0.03 0.002
c3 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.026 0.05 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0 0.006 0.008 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.056 0.247 0.296 0.106 0.012 0.004
c2 0 0 0.011 0.046 0.06 0.029 0.003
c3 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.026 0.052 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.007 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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