Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.86	0.95	22963	13713	9220	30
Day 1 forecast	-0.85	0.95	22963	13500	9437	26
Day 4 forecast	-0.85	0.95	22963	13511	9429	23
Day 7 forecast	-0.84	0.94	22963	13121	9809	33
Day 10 forecast	-0.84	0.94	22963	12933	9997	33

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.059	0.299	0.243	0.077	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0	0.019	0.081	0.079	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.026	0.059	0.014	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.01	0.007	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.002	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.059	0.297	0.243	0.078	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0	0.019	0.079	0.082	0.008	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.028	0.056	0.012	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.01	0.007	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.002	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.058	0.292	0.242	0.077	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0	0.023	0.08	0.081	0.008	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.028	0.057	0.012	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.009	0.007	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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