Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.8	0.92	17124	9076	7989	59
Day 1 forecast	-0.81	0.93	17124	9275	7791	58
Day 4 forecast	-0.81	0.93	17124	9301	7766	57
Day 7 forecast	-0.8	0.93	17124	9155	7909	60
Day 10 forecast	-0.81	0.94	17124	9279	7791	54

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.033	0.222	0.283	0.066	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.03	0.106	0.077	0.003	0
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.04	0.067	0.013	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.014	0.006	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.001	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.033	0.223	0.287	0.067	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.029	0.101	0.081	0.004	0
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.041	0.064	0.013	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.012	0.006	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.033	0.223	0.285	0.066	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.002	0.03	0.103	0.08	0.003	0
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.042	0.065	0.014	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.012	0.006	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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