Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.71	0.89	37895	10407	27268	220
Day 1 forecast	-0.71	0.89	37895	10421	27251	223
Day 4 forecast	-0.71	0.89	37895	10512	27152	231
Day 7 forecast	-0.7	0.88	37895	10223	27449	223
Day 10 forecast	-0.71	0.89	37895	10442	27218	235

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.036	0.066	0.016	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.003	0.025	0.128	0.165	0.061	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.053	0.115	0.086	0.019
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.042	0.059	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.029	0.019
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.035	0.066	0.015	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.003	0.025	0.128	0.166	0.062	0.01
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.053	0.115	0.085	0.019
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.041	0.059	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.028	0.019
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.004	0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.033	0.064	0.015	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.003	0.027	0.129	0.165	0.059	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.054	0.116	0.088	0.019
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.041	0.059	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.028	0.018
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.004	0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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