Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.7   0.91   43134 11196 31724 214
Day 1 forecast -0.7   0.91   43134 11234 31682 218
Day 4 forecast -0.7   0.92   43134 11337 31577 220
Day 7 forecast -0.69   0.91   43134 11014 31905 215
Day 10 forecast -0.71   0.92   43134 11308 31613 213

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.048 0.084 0.024 0.007 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.022 0.145 0.159 0.051 0.007
c3 0 0 0.005 0.062 0.109 0.066 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.044 0.051 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.027 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.048 0.084 0.024 0.007 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.022 0.145 0.159 0.052 0.007
c3 0 0 0.005 0.061 0.109 0.065 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.043 0.052 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.026 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.045 0.081 0.022 0.007 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.025 0.147 0.158 0.05 0.007
c3 0 0 0.005 0.062 0.111 0.067 0.011
c4 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.044 0.052 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.01 0.027 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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