Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.7	0.88	43958	11535	32253	170
Day 1 forecast	-0.7	0.88	43958	11570	32215	173
Day 4 forecast	-0.7	0.89	43958	11623	32171	164
Day 7 forecast	-0.7	0.88	43958	11486	32301	171
Day 10 forecast	-0.7	0.89	43958	11548	32255	155

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.046	0.099	0.029	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.023	0.148	0.156	0.056	0.007
	c3	0	0.001	0.004	0.07	0.097	0.059	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.039	0.045	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.026	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.046	0.099	0.028	0.007	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.023	0.148	0.157	0.057	0.007
	c3	0	0.001	0.004	0.07	0.096	0.058	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.039	0.046	0.012
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.025	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.046	0.098	0.027	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.023	0.149	0.158	0.056	0.007
	c3	0	0.001	0.004	0.07	0.096	0.059	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.039	0.046	0.012
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.01	0.025	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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