Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.7	0.87	44494	12382	31985	127
Day 1 forecast	-0.7	0.87	44494	12413	31958	123
Day 4 forecast	-0.7	0.87	44494	12419	31955	120
Day 7 forecast	-0.7	0.87	44494	12268	32102	124
Day 10 forecast	-0.71	0.88	44494	12316	32059	119

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.047	0.095	0.03	0.007	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.021	0.154	0.167	0.058	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.067	0.098	0.054	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.037	0.043	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.009	0.026	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.021

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.047	0.095	0.03	0.007	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.021	0.155	0.167	0.059	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.067	0.098	0.053	0.006
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.037	0.043	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.009	0.025	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.046	0.094	0.029	0.007	0.005
	c2	0	0.002	0.022	0.154	0.165	0.058	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.068	0.099	0.054	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.038	0.043	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.009	0.026	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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