Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2017-04-13
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best estimate | -0.71 | 0.89 | 46118 | 14099 | 31906 | 113 |
Day 1 forecast | -0.71 | 0.9 | 46118 | 14183 | 31828 | 107 |
Day 4 forecast | -0.72 | 0.9 | 46118 | 14278 | 31717 | 123 |
Day 7 forecast | -0.71 | 0.89 | 46118 | 13985 | 32036 | 97 |
Day 10 forecast | -0.72 | 0.91 | 46118 | 14646 | 31343 | 129 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
Category | Sea ice thickness |
---|---|
c1 | <1m |
c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
observations | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
c1 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.061 | 0.13 | 0.033 | 0.011 | 0.009 | ||
c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.018 | 0.164 | 0.162 | 0.038 | 0.005 | ||
c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.06 | 0.085 | 0.037 | 0.005 | ||
c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.046 | 0.041 | 0.01 | ||
c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.008 | 0.021 | 0.02 | ||
c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.016 |
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
observations | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
c1 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.061 | 0.129 | 0.033 | 0.011 | 0.008 | ||
c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.018 | 0.165 | 0.162 | 0.038 | 0.005 | ||
c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.06 | 0.085 | 0.038 | 0.006 | ||
c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.046 | 0.041 | 0.01 | ||
c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.008 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ||
c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.016 |
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
observations | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
c1 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.06 | 0.125 | 0.032 | 0.011 | 0.009 | ||
c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.019 | 0.166 | 0.161 | 0.039 | 0.005 | ||
c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.063 | 0.086 | 0.037 | 0.005 | ||
c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.047 | 0.042 | 0.01 | ||
c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.019 | 0.021 | ||
c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.015 |
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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