Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.71   0.89   46118 14099 31906 113
Day 1 forecast -0.71   0.9   46118 14183 31828 107
Day 4 forecast -0.72   0.9   46118 14278 31717 123
Day 7 forecast -0.71   0.89   46118 13985 32036 97
Day 10 forecast -0.72   0.91   46118 14646 31343 129

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.061 0.13 0.033 0.011 0.009
c2 0 0.001 0.018 0.164 0.162 0.038 0.005
c3 0 0 0.006 0.06 0.085 0.037 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.046 0.041 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0 0.008 0.021 0.02
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.016

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.061 0.129 0.033 0.011 0.008
c2 0 0.001 0.018 0.165 0.162 0.038 0.005
c3 0 0 0.006 0.06 0.085 0.038 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.046 0.041 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0 0.008 0.02 0.02
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.016

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.06 0.125 0.032 0.011 0.009
c2 0 0.001 0.019 0.166 0.161 0.039 0.005
c3 0 0 0.007 0.063 0.086 0.037 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.047 0.042 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0 0.007 0.019 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.015

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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