Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.75   0.95   48351 16260 31870 221
Day 1 forecast -0.76   0.95   48351 16337 31811 203
Day 4 forecast -0.76   0.96   48351 16561 31575 215
Day 7 forecast -0.75   0.95   48351 16046 32092 213
Day 10 forecast -0.77   0.97   48351 17034 31083 234

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.137 0.042 0.012 0.012
c2 0 0.001 0.022 0.161 0.165 0.044 0.006
c3 0 0 0.008 0.05 0.076 0.036 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.034 0.042 0.014
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.017 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.138 0.042 0.013 0.013
c2 0 0.001 0.022 0.163 0.165 0.044 0.006
c3 0 0 0.008 0.048 0.076 0.035 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.034 0.042 0.014
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.016 0.024
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.135 0.041 0.012 0.012
c2 0 0.001 0.022 0.163 0.166 0.044 0.006
c3 0 0 0.008 0.05 0.075 0.036 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.035 0.042 0.015
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.016 0.023
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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