Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.76   0.96   44545 16265 27989 291
Day 1 forecast -0.77   0.96   44545 16331 27936 278
Day 4 forecast -0.77   0.97   44545 16471 27804 270
Day 7 forecast -0.76   0.96   44545 16200 28072 273
Day 10 forecast -0.78   0.98   44545 16567 27703 275

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.053 0.135 0.05 0.015 0.015
c2 0 0.001 0.027 0.175 0.146 0.057 0.005
c3 0 0 0.009 0.052 0.066 0.033 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.029 0.035 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.006 0.014 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.053 0.136 0.051 0.015 0.015
c2 0 0.001 0.027 0.175 0.146 0.057 0.005
c3 0 0 0.009 0.051 0.066 0.033 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.028 0.035 0.017
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.006 0.013 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.053 0.135 0.049 0.014 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.027 0.174 0.148 0.056 0.005
c3 0 0 0.009 0.052 0.066 0.034 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.029 0.035 0.017
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.006 0.013 0.023
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0.012

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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