Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.76	0.96	44545	16265	27989	291
Day 1 forecast	-0.77	0.96	44545	16331	27936	278
Day 4 forecast	-0.77	0.97	44545	16471	27804	270
Day 7 forecast	-0.76	0.96	44545	16200	28072	273
Day 10 forecast	-0.78	0.98	44545	16567	27703	275

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.053	0.135	0.05	0.015	0.015
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.175	0.146	0.057	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.052	0.066	0.033	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.029	0.035	0.016
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.006	0.014	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.053	0.136	0.051	0.015	0.015
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.175	0.146	0.057	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.051	0.066	0.033	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.028	0.035	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.006	0.013	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.053	0.135	0.049	0.014	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.174	0.148	0.056	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.052	0.066	0.034	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.029	0.035	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.006	0.013	0.023
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0.012

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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