Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.78	0.99	49477	17924	31358	195
Day 1 forecast	-0.79	0.99	49477	18030	31258	189
Day 4 forecast	-0.79	0.99	49477	18152	31151	174
Day 7 forecast	-0.78	0.99	49477	18016	31243	218
Day 10 forecast	-0.8	1	49477	18104	31234	139

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.059	0.139	0.046	0.015	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.026	0.189	0.145	0.056	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.043	0.07	0.033	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.028	0.033	0.018
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.011	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.14	0.046	0.016	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.026	0.189	0.146	0.055	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.042	0.069	0.034	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.028	0.033	0.018
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.01	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.059	0.139	0.046	0.015	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.026	0.189	0.147	0.054	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.042	0.068	0.034	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.027	0.033	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.011	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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