Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.81   1.01   49251 18764 30394 93
Day 1 forecast -0.82   1.02   49251 18910 30251 90
Day 4 forecast -0.82   1.02   49251 19142 30029 80
Day 7 forecast -0.81   1.01   49251 18597 30554 100
Day 10 forecast -0.83   1.03   49251 19497 29681 73

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.073 0.142 0.043 0.019 0.015
c2 0 0.001 0.035 0.186 0.139 0.053 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.044 0.063 0.033 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.027 0.031 0.022
c5 0 0 0 0 0.004 0.008 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.073 0.142 0.044 0.019 0.015
c2 0 0.001 0.036 0.189 0.141 0.052 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.041 0.062 0.034 0.004
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.027 0.031 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.008 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.073 0.142 0.043 0.018 0.015
c2 0 0.001 0.035 0.186 0.141 0.053 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.044 0.061 0.033 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.027 0.032 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0 0.005 0.008 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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