Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.77	0.99	48723	17770	30882	71
Day 1 forecast	-0.78	0.99	48723	17902	30743	78
Day 4 forecast	-0.79	1	48723	18211	30439	73
Day 7 forecast	-0.77	0.99	48723	17562	31086	75
Day 10 forecast	-0.8	1.01	48723	18579	30067	77

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.081	0.138	0.049	0.016	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.065	0.202	0.125	0.038	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.049	0.048	0.028	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.027	0.029	0.018
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.007	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.08	0.138	0.049	0.017	0.014
	c2	0	0.001	0.065	0.203	0.126	0.038	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.048	0.047	0.029	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.026	0.028	0.019
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.007	0.024
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.004	0.08	0.137	0.049	0.016	0.013
	c2	0	0.001	0.065	0.199	0.124	0.038	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.052	0.05	0.029	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.027	0.029	0.019
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.007	0.025
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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