Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.75	0.97	47427	17220	30114	93
Day 1 forecast	-0.76	0.97	47427	17419	29913	95
Day 4 forecast	-0.77	0.98	47427	17671	29662	94
Day 7 forecast	-0.75	0.97	47427	17056	30280	91
Day 10 forecast	-0.78	0.99	47427	17945	29374	108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.091	0.135	0.048	0.017	0.012
	c2	0	0	0.089	0.209	0.113	0.03	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.052	0.044	0.023	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.024	0.028	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.008	0.023
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.006	0.092	0.136	0.049	0.018	0.012
	c2	0	0.001	0.089	0.208	0.113	0.03	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.052	0.044	0.023	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.023	0.027	0.018
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.007	0.022
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.006	0.09	0.133	0.047	0.018	0.012
	c2	0	0.001	0.09	0.209	0.113	0.03	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.054	0.046	0.023	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.024	0.027	0.017
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.007	0.023
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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